After early afternoon rumors that Souter was headed out after 18 years on the big bench late night “media reports” made it official: he’s leaving at term’s end, as long as he has a successor confirmed.

Nominated by President George H. W. Bush in 1990, Souter was a “moderate conservative” that turned into a consistent liberal vote on the court.  That means his stepping down during a Democratic administration is really  not a big deal.  Obama will replace him with a liberal and the balance will remain the same.  What Obama SHOULD do is replace him with a conservative - just so happens I’m unemployed and available.  Ha!

The other two likely to step down during Obama’s term are the two oldest members John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, also of the liberal wing of the court.  Unless one of the conservative members leave - two of them were just installed within the past four years - or the swing vote, Justice Kennedy, calls it quits, Obama will unlikely be able to change the idealogical make-up of the court.

A few things to note on this first Obama vacancy:

1) Changing the make-up of the court or not, a vacany allows a president one of the sure-fire ways of placing a stamp on their legacy.  Legislation can be over-turned years later, new laws can be enacted that replace ones they signed - but a member of the court stays as long as they want.  Ford & Reagan both have nominees remaining of the court (Stevens for Ford and Scalia and Kennedy for Reagan)

2) Just because a Democrat picks the member doesn’t mean they will turn out liberal. Look at Souter and Stevens.  Both picked by Republican presidents, both on the liberal side of the court.  No guarentee’s in this business.

3) Supreme Court politics is the Olympics for special interest groups.  EVERYONE has a litmus test for who they want on the court: pro-choice, female, hispanic, etc. etc.  It’s near impossible for a president to make every single group happy and especially in this case, Obama will probably find it difficult.  The very left-wing of his party expects many thank you’s for electing him - and a Supreme Court justice is the biggest and best they could hope for.