Talkin’ Future of the GOP

I will be on MSNBC around 4:30 pm eastern today talking about the future of the GOP.  Tune in!

Quick Thoughts: Mitch Makes News

Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana is making headlines today (one of the top stories on Yahoo! News, in fact) - you can read the story here.  Daniels calls on Republicans in Washington, D.C., to stop “whining” in their legislative dealings with Democrats.  He faults the leadership for using too many “process arguments” rather than “policy prescriptions.”

The Guv has a great point.  Since Obama has taken office, many of the complaints offered by Republicans have been that they have not been allowed in the room to take part in the policy discussions - but they neglect to offer any suggestions for what they would do if they wer ein the room.  This has made many American’s think of the GOP has the new “Party of No” - just like the “Anybody But Bush” Democrats of 2004.  Process disagreements make headlines and are good conversation fodder in the Beltway, but they end up being viewed completely differently in the real world.

The GOP would be smart to heed Daniels’ advice in the coming months.


Mid-Day Reading List

Happy May!

Berlusconi more popular than Obama, says Silvio

Ratings plunge for 3rd primetime presser

Indiana’s Pence gets aggressive on cap-and-trade

Vegas showman Danny Ganz dies


Quick Thoughts: Souter

After early afternoon rumors that Souter was headed out after 18 years on the big bench late night “media reports” made it official: he’s leaving at term’s end, as long as he has a successor confirmed.

Nominated by President George H. W. Bush in 1990, Souter was a “moderate conservative” that turned into a consistent liberal vote on the court.  That means his stepping down during a Democratic administration is really  not a big deal.  Obama will replace him with a liberal and the balance will remain the same.  What Obama SHOULD do is replace him with a conservative - just so happens I’m unemployed and available.  Ha!

The other two likely to step down during Obama’s term are the two oldest members John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, also of the liberal wing of the court.  Unless one of the conservative members leave - two of them were just installed within the past four years - or the swing vote, Justice Kennedy, calls it quits, Obama will unlikely be able to change the idealogical make-up of the court.

A few things to note on this first Obama vacancy:

1) Changing the make-up of the court or not, a vacany allows a president one of the sure-fire ways of placing a stamp on their legacy.  Legislation can be over-turned years later, new laws can be enacted that replace ones they signed - but a member of the court stays as long as they want.  Ford & Reagan both have nominees remaining of the court (Stevens for Ford and Scalia and Kennedy for Reagan)

2) Just because a Democrat picks the member doesn’t mean they will turn out liberal. Look at Souter and Stevens.  Both picked by Republican presidents, both on the liberal side of the court.  No guarentee’s in this business.

3) Supreme Court politics is the Olympics for special interest groups.  EVERYONE has a litmus test for who they want on the court: pro-choice, female, hispanic, etc. etc.  It’s near impossible for a president to make every single group happy and especially in this case, Obama will probably find it difficult.  The very left-wing of his party expects many thank you’s for electing him - and a Supreme Court justice is the biggest and best they could hope for.


Quick Thoughts: GOP Ad Causing a Stir

The Fox hit was cancelled today, so here’s what I planned to say on the House GOP ad released yesterday asking American’s if they feel safer now.

A few people obviously didn’t have their thinking caps on and put images in the ad that have since caused uproar.  In 2004, a political ad with images from 9/11 got a lot of criticism - so why re-peat it?  All that does it give the Democrats an open door to deflect attention from the point of the ad - national security - an issue that is traditionally identified by the Republican Party.

It’s a convenient tool when numerous polls show more than 50% of Americans disagree with the release of interrogation memos and more than 50% disagree with closing Gitmo when there is no plan for placing those detainees elsewhere.  Sending a single detainee to France does not a plan make.

American’s don’t want terrorists in our prisons - in their own backyards.  These are the same people that planned and executed an attack with commercial airliners flown into buildings to inflict mass casualties using just box cutters!  It’s not as easy as Tim Robin’s character in Shawshank Redemption using a hammer and a poster of Rita Hayword to get out - but the point remains.

Bottom line:  don’t use images that will create an un-intended debate, especially on an issue that runs in your favor.


A Plug

If you’re getting married - great new book out there by my friend Michael Essany called “Groomology.”  You can check it out here.

Turn to page 88 for a story about a nice guy that gave Michael and his wife a West Wing tour on their honeymoon.  What a nice person!  Ha!


Fox News Today at 11:20 Eastern

I will be on Fox News Channel at 11:20 eastern today talking about this story.  A GOP ad released yesterday questioning some of the national security decisions made in the past 100 days is raising some eyebrows because of the images used in the ad.

New Column

My new column - Grading the press corps on Obama’s first 100 days - is up at http://tiny.cc/peteseat6  Check it out!


Quick Thoughts: Third Time’s a Charm?

Obama started out with issue #1 on everyone’s mind:  swine flu.  He even joined the re-branding campaign and called it H1N1.  After his opening statement, Obama’s underlying theme was focused on reminding the American people how much he has to deal with as president – he mentioned it numerous times – while the press was more interested in finding conflict between Obama and the previous administration on interrogation techniques and state’s secrets.  There were three questions on the subjects.

 

The other ten inquiries from questioners, carefully chosen as always, ran the gamut from H1N1 to autos to Iraq to immigration to abortion and even a touchy-feely question from the New York Times on what has surprised, troubled, enchanted and humbled Obama during these first 100 days in office.  All of them used to portray Obama not as just a president focused on an ever troubling economy – but a man with a lot on his plate.

 

In his answer to the New York Times, Obama explained that when he first announced his candidacy for president Iraq was the dominant issue and the economy was in relatively good shape.  Now, as he said, he has not just Iraq, but also Afghanistan, the economy, North Korea, H1N1 and a host of issues on his desk every day.  He has been surprised by “the number of issues coming to a head at one time.”

 

It’s an interesting strategy.  Every president must focus on multiple sets of problems every day – some that we see and some that we don’t.  So it’s very intriguing that he is making a conscience effort to highlight just how hard he is working as if someone out there is claiming he isn’t.

 

Main Points to take away:

1)      Is there a doctor in the house? Yes! Dr. Obama! – President Obama says wash your hands, cover your coughs and stay home if you’re sick.  Kids around the Nation woke up this morning with the sniffles and and invoked their own presidential privledge saying, “But mom, the president told me to stay home!”

2)      Obama works very, very, very, very, very hard – and had no idea he would. (That’s almost a direct quote)

3)      Obama does not want to be a banker nor a shareholder, but it’s the card he’s dealt.

4)      Admonishes GOP for not working with him – “opposing us on every front is not a good political strategy”

5)      Repeats that waterboarding is torture, in his view, and believes that releasing the memos took away a valuable recruitment tool from terrorists

 

By the numbers:

Questions – 13

Wires – 2 (Associated Press & Reuters)

TV – 4 (ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN – Fox News did not get a question, but seated in front row)

Radio – 1 (CBS – only the 2nd radio outlet to be called on in primetime)

Print – 3 (NYT, Time mag, WSJ – only one – Wash Times, was called on last time)

Regional/Niche – 3 (Detroit News, Telemundo, BET – allowed Obama to discuss autos, immigration and African American issues.)

 

Pretty low on the questions side, although average if you consider that the New York Times got a 4-for-1 deal with their question.  The Obama communications team yet again relied on regional/niche outlets to help drive their agenda for at least part of the press conference.  With the second question, just after swine flu, the Detroit News’ Deb Price inquired about the auto industry.  Obama also called on Telemundo and BET to discuss immigration reform (says it will begin this calendar year) and how the economy is effecting the African-American community.

 

Most interesting though is that Obama dissed Fox News Channel, which was the only network not to get a question during the press conference.  It’s no secret at the Obama team is not a fan of Fox, but this is a pretty bold move on their part.  Most will surely view it as a response to the fact that the parent broadcast network chose to run their normal original programming instead of Obama’s press conference, leaving that to the cable channel.


Quick Thoughts: Specter

Big news today in Washington, D.C. has been journey home for Arlen Specter.  A man that started his long career as a Democrat, then switched to the GOP went back to the D’s today after flirting with the idea for quite sometime.  I liken it to Michael Jordan coming out of retirement two times…by the second one it didn’t matter much.  This is the second time Specter has switched parties and it really doesn’t mean that much.

He has been voting with the Democrats pretty consistently so on paper - when and if Al Franken is seated - the Democrats will have 60 votes.  They essentially already had this because of Specter’s voting record.  So nothing changes.

Most are saying - and I agree - that Specter is doing this not to get a plum committee chairmanship or to win favor with anyone on the Hill…he’s doing it to win favor with voters and save his career.  Recent polls indicated a potential slaughter at the polls for Specter in the 2010 GOP primary against Pat Toomey.  In a move of pure political self-preservation, Specter decided to bolt before getting beat.  Now the Democrats are essentially stuck with supporting the guy.

One thing is for certain: Arlen can’t say he doesn’t look at polls.

UPDATE: Sen. Olympia Snowe has come out and said - the inevitable response to all this - that the GOP is lost and is to blame for Specter leaving. This is the easy reply in a situation like this. It’s the Republican Party’s fault. Just like it was when Jeffords left, right? As I wrote above, Specter was and is looking out for #1. The GOP is not lost in the wilderness.


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